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Mögliche Klimatrends in Österreich in der ersten Hälfte des 21. Jahrhunderts
Possible climate trends in Austria in the first half of the 21st century
This paper presents local-scale climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation at about thirty stations in Austria, based on IPCC IS92a emission scenarios whose effects on the climate system were calculated by use of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 global circulation model (GCM). The global temperature increase resulting from the IS92a scenarios lies in the middle of the SRES (Second Report Emission Scenarios). GCMs are capable of reproducing the large-scale behaviour of climatic parameters, but cannot simulate satisfactorily local-scale effects. In order to obtain climate data at the local scale it is necessary to use some kind of downscaling, i. e. to cascade down information from larger scales to smaller scales. This study applies statistical downscallng, which is based on empirically derived relationships between the GCM scale and the local scale of the stations. We use monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data at the GCM scale and station data provided by the Austrian weather service at the local scale. The period under study spans the second half of the 20th century. These data sets are analyzed by use of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and brought into relation using the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). CCA is used to establish transfer functions between the scales. Midlatitude weather depends on the seasons. Hence, downscallng is performed for each season separately Moreover, we distinguish between different climatic provinces in Austria. After assessing their performa
Springer; Springer
ISSN : 0945-358X
Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft A. 2004, vol. 56, n° 1-2, pp. 1-9 [9 pages] [bibl. : 23 ref.]
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